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London Transport Museum reveals that the future is greener in cities

The game is the boldest attempt yet to accurately predict how our attitudes and lifestyle choices today will impact on the world fifty years from now. Since its launch on 16th June, over 2,800 people have interacted with the game, answering a series of questions about their lifestyle choices and attitudes towards mobility and sustainability.

Their answers reveal that by the 2050s(1):
• The current lifestyle choices of the majority of countryside-dwellers would take society towards a carbon-controlled future, where good intentions are closely monitored and measured without cleaner technology being designed. This is a world where the good intentions of 2008 have amounted to very little.
• The majority of city-dwellers are making very different lifestyle choices, and suggest a future living in simple, urban colonies, relying on local resources. This ‘living local’ scenario is currently the most likely future based on the answers provided to date.
• Only 6% of people’s current lifestyle choices would lead to the collapse of society, global recession and sharp and savage energy shock indicating that we may be becoming more environmentally aware with our lifestyle choices.

Both the online game and the corresponding new museum exhibit, sponsored by Orange, are based on a major report from the Government’s cross departmental Foresight Programme that explores how we can apply science and technology to the design and implementation of intelligent infrastructure to create a robust, sustainable future.

The four scenarios predicted by the Future Generator correspond to those outlined in the Report making a graphic link between how we behave today and what life might be like for the next generation. On 17 June, London Transport Museum brought together some of the UK’s leading commentators and experts on technology, city planning and climate change to debate one of the most pressing issues of our time – Survive or Thrive? Urban Life in the 2050s.

Speaking at the debate, Tony Travers from the London School Economics commented: ‘The problem about people living in the countryside and the cost of fuel means that living in the countryside is not economically sustainable. Every time you hear a debate about carbon credits, remember that it will put the cost of living in rural areas up very significantly, and bring it down in cities.’

Andrew Curry, Director of the Henley Centre and co-author of the Foresight Report said: ‘In terms of the rural infrastructure, as it presently exists, where local shops have disappeared due to larger supermarkets, if you start having high fuel costs or high carbon costs, the countryside as it is currently constructed becomes a horrible place to live. You have to make changes in the way lives are structured.’

Graham Fisher, Head of Orange Labs R&D, UK added: ‘It is a sobering thought that the rural ideal to which so many people aspire may no longer be a viable option by the time today’s children reach retirement age. Few people would imagine that city living could offer a more sustainable alternative simply because of the options that are made available to the people that live in them or that the intelligent way in which infrastructure and technology is used to aid urban living can also have such a dramatic effect on environmental sustainability.’

Other findings from the Future Generator reveal that 45 per cent of people living in the UK would ‘live local’ based on their current lifestyle choices compared to over half (51 per cent) of respondents from outside the UK would live in a ‘carbon controlled’ world while there was no difference between the choices made by over 18s and the older generation.

(1) The statistics are based on the accumulative predictions of the Future Generator online on the 20 June 2008. Visit www.ltmuseum.co.uk to find out the latest predictions.

For more information or to request spokespeople, please contact Iliana Taliotis or Philip Abraham at Colman Getty
T: 020 7631 2666
E: iliana@colmangetty.co.uk or philip@colmangetty.co.uk

The Results – The most likely futures based on the choices of different groups of people

The results below are based on choices recorded on the Future Generator since its launch on the 16th June, and the 7 July 2008.

To check the latest results visit www.ltmuseum.co.uk

2050s scenarios based on the choices made by everyone playing the game.
Carbon Controlled 23%
Living Local 45%
Energy Shock 5%
Always On 27%

2050s scenario based on the choices made by people living in cities.
Carbon Controlled 24%
Living Local 46%
Energy Shock 2%
Always On 28%

2050s scenario based on the choices made by people living in a rural environment.
Carbon Controlled 40%
Living Local 37%
Energy Shock 2%
Always On 21%

2050s scenario based on the choices made by people living in the UK.
Carbon Controlled 24%
Living Local 46%
Energy Shock 2%
Always On 28%

2050s scenario based on the choices made by people living outside the UK.
Carbon Controlled 44%
Living Local 35%
Energy Shock 2%
Always On 19%

Notes to editors
The four scenarios predicted by the Future Generator and outlined in the Foresight Report are:
• Always On: a life in perpetual motion with vast computer networks where people become scared to turn off.
• Living Local: simple, urban colonies relying on local resources.
• Energy Shock: a life of adapting to survive when oil runs out and resources once taken for granted, disappear.
• Carbon Controlled: with good intentions that are closely monitored and measured without cleaner technology being designed.

A debate, ‘Survive or thrive? Urban choices for the 2050s’, was held at London Transport Museum on Tuesday 17 June, to formally launch the Future Generator online. Chaired by Radio 4 Broadcaster James Naughtie, the debate took as its starting point the Future Generator gallery and online exhibit. The other speakers were:
o Andrew Curry, Director of Henley Centre
o Graham Fisher, Head of Orange Labs R&D, UK
o Fiona Harvey, Environment Correspondent on the Financial Times
o Chris Luebkeman, Director for Global Foresight and Innovation at the leading design consultancy Arup
o Professor Tony Travers, the Director of the Greater London Group at LSE

London Transport Museum reopened on 22nd November 2007, following a £22.4 million refurbishment and redevelopment project to transform gallery displays and dramatically improve the Museum’s Victorian Grade II listed building. Www.ltmuseum.co.uk

The London 2055 Gallery
The new London Transport Museum interprets transport futures for the first time. This new content has been developed in response to a strong steer given to the Museum by audience research commissioned to inform the new exhibitions.

Current and future transport developments are showcased while visitors are given the opportunity to see what it might be like to live in London in 2055, based on the lifestyle choices we are making today. Visitors to the new Museum will end their visit with an improved understanding of the challenges of congestion, population growth and climate changes and feel empowered to get involved in London’s future.

For more information about Foresight, Government Office for Science, please visit www.foresight.gov.uk

The research which inspired the London 2055 exhibit can be read at:
http://www.foresight.gov.uk/Previous_Projects/Intelligent_Infrastructure_Systems/Index.html
http://www.foresight.gov.uk/Previous_Projects/Intelligent_Infrastructure_Systems/Reports_and_Publications/Intelligent_Infrastructure_Futures/the_scenarios_2055.pdf

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