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Cynthia Kase Relies on Proprietary Technical Indicators

Trader and consultant Cynthia Kase relies on a series of proprietary technical indicators that has developed for her trading signals. Kase makes her trading decisions strictly based on these technical indicators and doesn't rely on fundamental analysis at all.

Kase was first exposed to trading in August 1983, when her employer at the time-Standard Oil of California-transferred her to the trading department as part of a management development program. With a background in chemical engineering, Kase brought a new perspective to the trading room.

"Two things happened in 1983 that were interesting and important for oil trading," Kase noted. "In 1983, the crude oil contract was introduced and also the other thing that happened was that the PC finally made its way into the business," she added.

"I got them to put a computer in the trading room," Kase said. "For a trader (in the early 1980s), I was fairly computer literate because I had an engineering background," she explained.

Some of the early lessons Kase said she learned regarding trading were that "you have to be a bit of a loner if you are going to trade well. You can't listen to what everyone else thinks. I think it is important to stay focused, get enough sleep, remain calm and everything else will fall into place. You can't care too much."

While Kase calls herself strictly a technical trader now, "I didn't start to trade technically until 1985," she said. "Technical trading is a lot more complicated that it seems on face value," she added.

"It takes a lot of work-it's not like-take two days to read John Murphy's book and go trade," Kase said, referring to Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets by John J- Murphy, often considered the "bible" for market technicians.

Over the years, Kase began to develop her own technical indicators, which she now offers to her clients. Currently, Kase trades for herself, but also acts as a consultant to about three dozen corporate clients.

"I am a mainstream technician in that I use pattern, momentum and trend," Kase explained. However, "my indicators use statistics, as opposed to empirical observation," Kase noted.

Two of Kase's statistically based tools are the PeakOscilltor, a momentum indicator that can be cross-compared between markets and Dev-Stop, a volatility-adjusted stop technique.

Kase authored a three-part series in the April, May and June 1996 issues of "Futures Magazine" that readers may refer to for more details on her technical indicators.

In terms of time frame, Kase said she does not trade intraday, but that her average trade lasts three to 10 days. "My trading techniques are very focused on exit strategies, not entry points," Kase said. "I take profits more quickly. I take a lot more winning trades, but the wins are smaller. I take partial profits on danger signals, such as reversal patterns and momentum divergences," Kase said.

"It is more important to be right than to make that big win," she added. Kase currently only forecasts the energy markets, but notes that her technical indicators work in all markets. In her personal trading she prefers "to trade physical versus financial futures, as they are too influenced by random and political events," Kase explained.

On advice for beginning futures traders, Kase said, "the only way to learn how to trade is to trade." However, Kase warns that potential traders "have to ask why? If it's because you want to make a lot of money, you'll never succeed," she said.

For a private trader, "I would never recommend that anyone trade without $50,000 to throw away and two year's income set aside. Make sure money is not an issue," she said.

"If you can't afford to work for two years without making a cent, then you shouldn't be trading," Kase added. "For young people, I'd recommend working for a broker, for a trading house. Personally, I think your odds of success are better," she said.

Kase concluded, "The three most important things are one: you can't listen to other people; two: there is no easy way. There is no Holy Grail. Hard work and application is what is going to make a good trader and three: it has to be fun."

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