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NBA Tickets - Upside Picks vs. Proven Products

When NBA teams draft a player to be a part of their organization, there are tons of things to consider and a lot of questions to be asked. One question that is yet to be answered definitively is whether to draft based on a player's upside or his proven track record, or at least which factor to weigh more heavily. Throughout the draft process, so many factors are assessed, yet teams still have gotten it wrong more often than they've gotten it right.

A classic case of upside vs. proven came into play in the 2004 draft. The Orlando Magic, who held the number one pick, had to make a choice between prep school standout Dwight Howard and four-year college player and national champion Emeka Okafor. Many draft pundits scoffed at the notion of selecting an unproven commodity like Howard over Okafor, a player that dominated on a national scale at the University of Connecticut. One cannot blame general managers and draft prognosticators for being wary of using a high draft pick on a high school product at the time. The Washington Wizards were still reeling from selecting perpetual bust Kwame Brown with the first overall selection in the 2001 draft, a year in which both Eddy Curry and Tyson Chandler were Top 5 picks. Yet, it was also one year after the Cleveland Cavaliers had selected LeBron James out of St. Vincent St Mary's, an Ohio high school. LeBron was a bit of an exception, though, as he was widely seen as a sure thing, unlike most other preps-to-pros prospects. The Magic were faced with a very difficult decision. Howard was just brimming with upside. Tall, long and supremely athletic, scouts were drooling at what this kid could become, the key word being "if," though. Okafor appeared to be a can't-miss big man, who would at the very least become a quality starter in the NBA. Orlando went the high-risk, high-reward route and selected the Atlanta high schooler.

Fast forward four years. Howard is one of the premiere players in the league, not centers, mind you, but players in general. Meanwhile, Okafor is nothing more than a solid big man that seems very limited next to Howard. In this case, upside clearly won out over the proven record.

The following year, in the 2005 draft, the Atlanta Hawks were faced with a similar decision with the second pick in the draft. The Hawks desperately needed a point guard, and Wake Forest product Chris Paul was sitting there at number two just waiting to be selected. Paul had excelled in his two years at Wake, showing himself to be a big time floor general with all the tools necessary for success. He'd also shown himself to be a great leader, both on and off the floor, and his body had shown significant maturation since his high school days. Paul was seen by most experts as the most NBA-ready player in the draft. The Hawks, however, chose to go a different route. Atlanta selected UNC forward Marvin Williams despite drafting two players that played the same position as him in the first round of the previous year's draft. Williams oozed with upside after a solid, yet unspectacular, freshman season at North Carolina. UNC won the National Title that season, but it was a team for which Williams was the sixth man. Still, his upside and all-around potential was too much for the Hawks to resist and they passed on Paul for the much rawer Williams.

Fast forward to the present and Chris Paul has already established himself as the consensus best point guard in the league and finished second in the MVP voting for the 2007-08 NBA season. He's one of the most dynamic and popular players in the league, sells NBA tickets to the level of LeBron James and Kobe Bryant and projects to be a future Hall-of-Famer. Meanwhile, Williams has developed into a solid, yet unspectacular, player for the Hawks. He's still plenty young and could develop into an All-Star caliber player, but the chances he becomes anything resembling the player Paul is are virtually zero. In this case, the upside pick didn't work out. Another thing to consider here is that Atlanta felt they were selecting the best player available instead of addressing a positional need. Is this normally the right decision? Well, that's a topic for a different article.

If I was forced to decide on whether, in general, it's a better idea to draft on upside or on a proven track record, my answer would be both. The players who excelled at the collegiate level and still have room to grow always seem to be the best pros. For those of you who consider this a bit of a cop out, there's really no better answer when one is not examining prospects on an individual basis. But, I do believe that the proven player usually works out better, though fewer superstars may be found that way. Like I said, drafting upside is a classic case of high-risk, high-reward.

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