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NCAA Football Tickets - Bowl Blowout Prediction Analysis

I threw around my fair share of predictions this bowl season, and, knowing that I wasn't going to actually put any money on any games this year, I let the opinions flow. Let's check in to see if I still have the magic. Perhaps, with the way the stock market has behaved in 2008, it will turn out that I give better returns than Wall Street or Bernie Madoff.

Insight Bowl: Kansas - Minnesota
Spread: Kansas by 10

What did I say? Bet strong on Kansas. Bet on Kansas to blow the lid off this bowl. Minnesota's record of 7-5, while technically enough to say they can hang with equally 7-5 Kansas, has a startling trend to it. In the past four games, Minnesota is 0-4. They lost to Northwestern, Michigan, Wisconsin and, in the regular season home finale, to Iowa. The Iowa loss was a 0-55 embarrassment, which coupled with Kansas' narrow road win over Missouri to finish their regular season, has my betting money dancing the meringue around a magnificent sombrero. My insight on the Insight Bowl: Bet on Kansas in a blowout.

Was I Right? Yes
Gloating Comments: These lopsided games turned out to be pretty easy to predict, and the Insight Bowl was maybe the easiest one to see coming. Although Minnesota hung with the Jayhawks in the early going, Kansas couldn't be stopped, and by the third quarter the Golden Gophers were out of steam, and Kansas was up 35-14. Kansas wound up winning 42-21, well over the ten point margin. If you suck with me, you got a return, however small, on your investment. Hopefully you took your winnings directly to the gold store to purchase something of tangible value. That's is, I hope you bought your gold, and maybe some more NCAA football tickets after you danced around a large hat.

St. Petersburg Bowl: Memphis - South Florida
Spread: USF by 12

What Did I Say? Don't Bet. South Florida and Memphis look somewhat similar on paper. The Bulls and the Tigers have average scores in the high 20s on offense, and they both allow low-20s scores on defense. Tipping the scale in favor of the Bulls, though, is the fact that they are playing in St. Petersburg, Florida- a much closer game to their campus. Also, USF and Memphis both played Central Florida earlier this year. USF won their UCF game by seven, but Memphis lost theirs by seven. Both teams played Louisville and lost. This is a tough one to call, so we're taking a breather on this one.

Was I Right? Well, I wasn't wrong.
Comments: South Florida ended up rolling right over the Memphis Tigers, finishing the game ahead 41-14. Technically you should have bet heavy on USF here, looking at the game in retrospect. However, I still contend that the game didn't offer much in the way of confidence, and I gave an effective argument as to why. It turns out that home field advantage was very important in the bowl games this season, something that I should have given more weight to. Still, if you did what I said and kept your money in your savings account, you probably accrued about a tenth of a hundredth of a cent by now. Consider it a minor victory.

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