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Author: BrentWarnken | Total views: 32 Comments: 0
Word Count: 642 Date: Tue, 10 Mar 2009 7:42 AM

NCAA Football Tickets - Hawaii and Rose Bowl Prediction Analysis

In light of the best new thing on the History Channel this past week, a special about Nostradamus' prediction of the end of the world in late December, 2012, which pretty much corresponds with some of the other usual suspects when it comes to astrological future prediction (notably the ancient Mayan calendar), we're taking a look at the predictions I made about the 2008 bowl games. Specifically, we're taking a look at what I said about the Hawaii Bowl and the Rose Bowl, two of the most watched bowl games this season.

Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii-Notre Dame
Spread: Hawaii by 1.5

What Did I Say? Bet on Notre Dame. Why? Vegas is trusting that you're going to bet against Notre Dame for four main reasons: 1. You love to hate the Irish. 2. Notre Dame's nine-game bowl losing streak is highly publicized. 3. Hawaii is at home, whereas Notre Dame travels almost a quarter for the way around the world. And 4. You love to hate the Irish. A full 75% of those reasons are based on emotion alone, a sucker's reason to place a bet. In real life Hawaii's home field edge is no better than any average team, as evidenced by their losing to San Jose St. and Cincinnati on the island this season. Also, Notre Dame has a better defense than Hawaii. UND gives up an average of 22.3 points per game, whereas Hawaii gives up 27.3 (a 5 point Irish advantage).

On offense, Hawaii is better (24.9 ppg) than Notre Dame (22.7ppg) but the differential is only 2 points in favor of Hawaii. Strictly by the scoring numbers, Notre Dame should win the game, so avoid using your emotions on this one. Then again, Notre Dame has no wins this season over teams of any quality, and they do have some very exploitable holes on both sides of the ball. If the Irish can't pass and it's a low scoring game, the Warriors could win this one.

Was I Right? Right as rain, lady.

Gloating Comments: I was completely correct about the Irish defense being better than Hawaii's and it proved to be the biggest reason that I got this prediction correct. Jimmy Clausen was on fire, and the Irish were superb on special teams. This is a completely different team that those that lost all of the bowl games in the past, so there was really no reason to think that the streak would continue just for the sake of hating the Irish. If you stuck to the facts instead of your nonsense, you turned a nice profit on this one. No need to thank me. Actually, I accept money.

Rose Bowl: Penn State - USC
Spread: USC by 10

What Did I Say? Bet heavy on USC. Here's the facts. USC is the nation's best scoring defense, allowing a mere 7.8 points per game. Penn State ranks 4th in the nation, at 12.4. So quit hyping up the USC defense, because both teams play some excellent D. The real factor here is home field advantage, and, playing essentially a home game, the Trojans ought to be unstoppable. At home they beat Ohio State 35-3, Oregon 44-10, and Cal 17-3. So they will be in top form at the Rose Bowl. Bet of the Trojans here.

Was I Right? Yes.

Gloating Comments: As it turned out, neither defense really looked like their regular season selves, but that still didn't stop me from making a good prediction. The Trojans predictably beat the spread, winning 38-24 and sending you a small, but very sweet number of winning coins. Mark Sanchez was the real factor in the game, which I didn't quite predict. But if he was good only because he was at home, then I reserve the right to take full credit for it.

About the Author

Brent Warnken wrote this article in association with StubHub. If you are looking for NCAA football tickets, sports tickets, theatre tickets, concert tickets, or any other kinds of tickets, StubHub.com is one of the best places to find them.